Products / Saturation Clock
The market grows. Every operator shrinks.
Saturation is entry over demand, not demand alone. Peptide is the template: real demand, a temporary legal basis, a floor that rose from below. Move the ratios. The shakeout date is arithmetic.
Revenue / operator, year 0 → 6
10.0 → 2.0
down 80% while the market grows
Shakeout clock
Year 4
closed form 3.4 yr · breakeven 4
Entry rule
DO NOT ENTER
payback 5 vs clock 4
| Year | Market | Operators | Rev / operator |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1,000 | 100 | 10.0 |
| 1 | 1,185 | 155 | 7.6 |
| 2 | 1,404 | 240 | 5.8 |
| 3 | 1,664 | 372 | 4.5 |
| 4 | 1,972 | 577 | 3.4 · below |
| 5 | 2,337 | 895 | 2.6 · below |
| 6 | 2,769 | 1,387 | 2.0 · below |
Default matches the published peptide run: 18.5% demand vs 55% operators, clock year 4, revenue per operator 10.0 → 2.0.
Window-dependent position
Demand can be structural while POSITION is temporary. The window operator beats the structural one right up to the date — then terminates. Peak 641 down to 3. Structural ends at 311.
| Year | Structural | Window-dependent |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 112 | 145 |
| 1 | 125 | 210 |
| 2 | 140 | 305 |
| 3 | 157 | 442 |
| 4 | 176 | 641 |
| 5 | 197 | 224 · basis closes |
| 6 | 221 | 79 |
| 7 | 248 | 27 |
| 8 | 277 | 10 |
| 9 | 311 | 3 |
The floor rises to meet you
Public price points, approximate. Unit cost 95. The discounter's whole business was the gap. Against a $50 copay the gap is negative.
| Stage | Brand | Discount | Spread | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brand list only | 1349 | 149 | 1200 | 54 |
| Brand self-pay | 349 | 149 | 200 | 54 |
| Payer subsidy (copay) | 50 | 149 | -99 | -45 |